Published October 2026 · Data verified 26 October 2026
Spain votes on 29 November, months ahead of schedule, and housing is at the centre of the campaign. For anyone buying on the Costa del Sol or the Costa Blanca, the obvious question is what a change of government could mean for prices, rental income and the rules on foreign buyers.
In short
- Polls point to a PP–Vox majority. Only the state pollster CIS puts PSOE ahead.
- The "100% tax on foreign buyers" targeted non-EU, non-resident buyers and never became law. For EU buyers, the election is about rental rules, not purchase bans.
- Three AI models expect prices to keep rising under either government, faster under PP and Vox. They disagree most on a PSOE win.
Why Spain is voting early
On 2 October, Congress rejected two housing decrees approved by the government days earlier. PP, Vox and Junts voted against. The decrees extended rental contracts, capped rents, limited speculative purchases until 2028, regulated seasonal lets and protected vulnerable tenants from eviction until 2030.
Three days later, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dissolved parliament. The legislature could have run until 2027, but his government could no longer pass laws, and housing protests were growing. Sánchez framed the vote as a choice between two models of country.
What the polls and markets say
An average of 16 pollsters puts PP (centre-right) at about 32%, PSOE (Sánchez's Socialists) at about 26% and Vox (far-right) at about 19%. On the pollsters' own projections, PP and Vox together would win around 200 of 350 seats, above the 176 needed for a majority. The state pollster CIS is the exception: its October poll puts PSOE clearly ahead.
Prediction markets lean the same way as private polls. On 21 October, Polymarket gave PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo an 82.5% chance of becoming prime minister, against 14.4% for Sánchez.
Why the coast is exposed
International buyers are a central part of both markets. According to Spain's notaries*, foreign buyers made 51.6% of home purchases in Alicante province in 2025, about 26,000 homes. In Málaga province they made 42.7%, buying 15,294 homes, 32% more than a year earlier.
*Spain's Land Registry reports lower shares. It counts a sale only once it is registered, which happens after the deed is signed, and registration is voluntary, so not every sale is recorded. Both sources show foreign demand at record levels.
What each side proposes on housing
PSOE (Pedro Sánchez). In January 2025, Sánchez proposed a tax of up to 100% on homes bought by non-EU, non-resident buyers. It never became law. The decrees rejected in October show the party's direction: rent caps, longer rental contracts, limits on speculative purchases and stricter rules for seasonal lets.
PP (Alberto Núñez Feijóo). PP promises to repeal the current housing law and pass a new land law within its first 100 days. It also promises a million new homes, eviction of squatters within 48 hours by court order and a 60% cut in housing taxes for young buyers.
Vox (Santiago Abascal). Vox has proposed in Congress higher taxes on foreign buyers, with the money going to tax breaks for Spaniards, and "national priority" in access to public housing. In practice, however, it has not pursued restrictions on foreign buyers where it shares power. In the Balearics, PP and Vox voted against limiting purchases by non-residents. In the regions they govern together, including Murcia and Valencia, they have introduced no such curbs.
What it means for EU buyers
The proposed 100% levy applied only to buyers from outside the EU who do not live in Spain. EU rules on free movement of capital make a nationality-based barrier for EU citizens very hard to apply. Buyers from outside the EU will find what changes for them in our guide to buying property in Spain as a non-EU buyer.
What will matter more for an EU investor is how rental property is regulated: rent caps, eviction times, seasonal lets and tourist licences. Under either government, EU owners also keep a tax advantage: they pay 19% on Spanish rental income and can deduct expenses, while non-EU owners pay more and cannot deduct costs.
Price scenarios for 2027: three AI models compared
We asked Claude (Anthropic), Gemini (Google) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) to estimate price growth in 2027 under each outcome, based on the polls, the parties' proposals and current market data.
| Scenario | Model | Costa del Sol | Costa Blanca |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP + Vox | Claude | +5–8% | +6–9% |
| PP + Vox | Gemini | +5–8% | +4–6% |
| PP + Vox | ChatGPT | +7–10% | +6–9% |
| PSOE-led | Claude | +3–6% | +2–5% |
| PSOE-led | Gemini | +1–3% | −1% to +2% |
| PSOE-led | ChatGPT | +4–7% | +3–6% |
All three expect faster growth under a right-leaning government, as scrapping rent caps and faster evictions would lift confidence among buy-to-let investors. A PSOE win brings the widest range, from −1% to +7%. Gemini is the most cautious and ChatGPT the most optimistic.
No model expects a real price decline. At worst, Gemini sees the Costa Blanca going flat under PSOE.
Where the risk sits
Gemini singles out small apartments at €100,000–200,000 on the Costa Blanca as the most sensitive segment. Under a PSOE government, stricter tax reporting and closer checks on rental platforms could make yield-seeking buyers more cautious. That would turn this segment into a buyer's market, with room to negotiate.
Mid-range, premium and especially luxury homes, largely bought with cash by international buyers, should hold up far better. In both scenarios, the underlying driver stays the same: Spain is not building enough homes to meet demand.
Key dates
- 13 November: the campaign starts.
- 23 November: last day polls can be published.
- 29 November: election day.
- After 23 December: Congress votes on the new prime minister. Until then, Sánchez stays on as acting prime minister.
What to do before the vote
- If you are buying to live in or for holidays, the election changes little for you. Location, price and the condition of the home matter far more.
- If you are buying to rent, check the rental and licensing rules in the specific municipality, and calculate your return under both scenarios. For tourist lets, start with our guides to the rules on the Costa del Sol and the Costa Blanca.
- If you are looking at €100,000–200,000 apartments on the Costa Blanca, a PSOE win could give you more room to negotiate.
- Compare the same home across agencies. On property portals, one home often appears with five to ten agencies at different prices. Directimo shows one verified page per home, with the exact address and current price, covering 14,600+ resale homes and nearly 1,200 new developments on both coasts today.
FAQ
Can EU citizens still buy property in Spain after the election?
Yes. None of the main parties proposes restricting purchases by EU citizens, and such a restriction would conflict with EU law.
Is the 100% tax on foreign buyers in force?
No. It was proposed in 2025 for non-EU, non-resident buyers and never became law.
Should I wait until after the election to buy?
It depends on your goal. Prices are expected to keep rising in both scenarios, so waiting mainly makes sense if you are buying to rent and want clarity on the rules.
Sources. Consejo General del Notariado (2025); Colegio de Registradores (2025 and Q2 2026); poll averages and Polymarket as of 21 October 2026; Congreso de los Diputados and party statements.
The price ranges above are scenario estimates generated by Claude (Anthropic), Gemini (Google) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) from public polls and market data as of October 2026. They are not forecasts, nor financial or legal advice.